Trends – special update
When word started spreading about this new ‘Coronavirus’, I was surprised at how slow the general public and stock markets reacted. I was watching the data come through and seeing the Chinese reactions and I was taking precautions.
Now we have had the stock markets crash and we have seen the public get into punch-ups over toilet paper. However these events do not last forever. So is Coronavirus sentiment already moving on now?
A part of your financial awakening is learning to look for the trends. Ask, what are the stats saying? What is the media sentiment? What are the experts saying? What are your friends and family saying? And what is everyone doing?
When it comes to Coronavirus there have been media commentators telling us that we were merely weeks away from a new Spanish Flu – this is simply not happening.
All deaths are sad. However, it is important to keep our reactions to death in perspective. When the official stats are presenting total world Corona deaths at 4,000 over the past 3 months, this is immaterial next to world-wide flu related deaths. In the USA alone, they had 34,000 flu related deaths in 2018. This is nearly 3,000 deaths per month in just one country.
I spoke to a pharmacist last week and asked him for his opinion on Coronavirus. His response was quite blunt. He said ‘We (Australia) have 15,000 flu related hospitalizations and deaths per year and nobody cares. We have had 4 Coronavirus deaths in the past 3 months.’ So again, perspective is important.
Then there is the good news. Many, many people are recovering from Coronavirus. Many people being diagnosed with the virus are reporting only mild symptoms from mild fevers, to coughs and cold like symptoms.
There are more reports coming out of children running around infected by the virus, not even aware that they have it. And as far as I am aware, not a single child has died from the virus.
There was at least one case of couple in close proximity for many days, not passing the virus from one to the other. The infected in this circumstance reported getting a fever which lasted about 8 hours and stated that it was effectively treated with Gatorade and has made a full recovery – again another positive.
I have noted that attitudes are now shifting – ‘this virus won’t get me‘ they say. I am going to eat well. Sleep well. Wash my hands more. Get fit. And what a great habits to get into.
Those who are sick seem to be self-quarantining, another positive.
So note the sentiments of those around you. Are they still stocking up on toilet paper or are they now getting on with life?
If you too feel that that people are simply getting on with life and ignoring the media noise, you can be reasonably certain that the fear is coming to an end. It is therefore worthwhile to consider what this might mean with regard to opportunities. Will stock markets start rising again? Will people start travelling again? Going out to public events again?
Finally, there would be many betting that this Coronavirus fear ‘trend’ continues. Well the ‘trend’ is your friend, until it ends. As I have mentioned previously, getting caught swimming against the trending currents can have dire financial consequence. So please be careful.
And stay healthy.